Four to Go - Who's In, Who's Out, Who Has a Chance

Personally, I hate saying this but it’s true – after Edmonton, we have four races to go before the 2012 season is over and a new champion is crowned. Since we’ve had a nice little off-week between Edmonton and Mid-Ohio, I decided to breaking down the championship battle focusing on the drivers in, out, and those who just have a fighting chance for this year’s title.

Who’s In?

As of right now, I’m thinking that any combination of these three drivers will be in the title hunt come Fontana (with one or more of the drivers in the next category possibly mixed in as well). All three have been strong all season long and have scored 8 victories combined out of the 11 races this year. These will be the three drivers to watch at Mid-Ohio because any of them could leave with the points lead.

Ryan Hunter-Reay (Current Points Leader with 362 points)

He opened the season with a podium and was up and down until a three-win streak during races 8 through 10 (and poor finishes from the championship leader) propelled the American from 7th in championship points all the way to the lead. Hunter-Reay is in his third season at Andretti Autosport and has put the team in a situation that they haven’t been in since 2007 – contending for a championship. With 3 wins, 5 podiums, 5 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, and an average finish of 8.0 this season, Hunter-Reay has been solid despite 2 DNF’s due to mechanical issues. He is strong on both types of racing circuits coming up and is racing for a champion-caliber team (who have three titles won in 2004, 2005, and 2007), but he does have one weakness – while his two closest rivals are from a rival team; they have also been in more than one championship fight in their INDYCAR careers. Hunter-Reay has not fought for a championship in this series. Will nerves get the best of him or can he overcome them to become the first American INDYCAR champion since 2006?

Helio Castroneves (23 behind Hunter-Reay)

Call him “Mr. Consistency” because that has been one of the biggest factors in Castroneves’ latest championship run. After a nightmarish winless 2011, the Brazilian has finished no worse than 17th all season, has finished every race, and has completed all but three laps all season (tying him with rookie, Simon Pagenaud). His record this season has been pretty solid as well – 2 wins, 3 podiums, 4 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s (the most of any driver this season), and an average finish of 6.7 (the best out of all full-season drivers this year). Not only has Castroneves had strong results this season; he also has experience on his side. He is in his 14th season and has already made many accomplishments, including 3 Indianapolis 500 victories, he has never won a championship. But it has not been from a lack of effort. He has been in the mix more than once against several different championship-caliber drivers – including his own teammates but has come up short every time.  Will this be the year that he finally scores that long-awaited title?

Will Power (26 behind Hunter-Reay)

He held the points lead from Race 3 until Race 10 when he lost the lead to Hunter-Reay. Power, who has been in the mix the last two seasons, is now the chaser in this championship with ground to make up. One factor that will assist the Australian in his quest for a first championship after coming up short to Franchitti in both 2010 and last year is that three of the final four races will on road or street courses – his forte. Despite one win on an oval (the second duel race at Texas last year), his oval record is not as stellar as his championship rivals’ (his only DNF’s this season – 2 – both occurred due to crashes on ovals). With 3 victories, 4 top 5’s, 7 top 10’s, and an average finish of 9.4 this season, Power is a huge threat for the championship but has one challenge coming up – racing at Auto Club Speedway, an oval, in the final race of the season. Like I said – Power’s strongest track layout is a road or street course.  If he can perform well at the final three this season, he’ll still have to survive the 500-mile finale. Can he do it?

Who Still Has a Chance?

Yes. It’s a bit of a long-shot for these three drivers (the only one I see with a legitimate chance is Dixon), but it’s amazing what can happen in a race or two. These guys, right now, if good luck comes their way and bad luck befalls the current contenders, they can be right back in this championship hunt. And the best way to do that would be winning.

Scott Dixon (61 behind Hunter-Reay)

The only reason the 2-time series champion isn’t in the same category as the drivers listed above him is because of one issue – engine reliability. Dixon is on his sixth engine. The allotted number was five. Every additional engine change he makes this season, regardless of reasoning or timing of engine change (based on what I get from the rule), will result in a 10-grid spot penalty. While Dixon is a very competitive, accomplished champion-caliber driver with 1 win (Belle Isle) this season, if he can make up positions lost if any additional engines have to be changed and maybe pull off another win or two, he is right back in the hunt.

James Hinchcliffe (76 behind Hunter-Reay)

The term “sophomore slump” has not applied to the Canadian this year. What’s actually a bigger story is how he came to race the GoDaddy.com car. When Danica vacated the ride at the end of the 2011 season, the intended driver was the late Dan Wheldon, who was a great fit for the GoDaddy brand. Out of the available drivers who could fill Danica’s heels and now Wheldon’s fancy Pumas, Hinch was the perfect choice with his engaging and entertaining personality. Along with being a great face for the sponsor, he’s had a pretty good season too and a mechanical failure.

Tony Kanaan (83 behind Hunter-Reay)

There have been a lot of changes in recent years for the 2004 champion especially regarding his racing career. But none of the issues regarding changing teams (twice during one off-season) and a winless streak that dates back to 2010 have damaged the Brazilian’s popularity. If it weren’t for two finishes near the back of the field at the beginning of the season, he could’ve likely been able to snatch the championship. Sadly, without a win, it sounds like Kanaan will be denied another chance to win a championship.

Who’s Out?

In reality, with the points system as it, I really feel like only the top 6 in points has a true fighting chance at this championship with four to go. Can you write these four off completely though? I personally think you can. But that doesn’t mean that any of these guys can still play a factor in this championship battle because they can outrun the title contenders by taking wins, podiums, and points away from the top dogs.

Simon Pagenaud (86 behind Hunter-Reay)

While the Frenchman will likely be crowned “Sunoco Rookie of the Year” and at various points this season had a chance to potentially pull off a huge upset in the championship, Pagenaud’s fizzled. While he has 6 top 10’s in 11 starts this year (including scoring his first podium at Long Beach back in April and a Kanaan-esque charge from last to 5th at Iowa) and is tied with Castroneves for most laps completed this season, his five other finishes are 12th or worse. His streak of finishing all races also came to a halt after being punted on the final lap at Edmonton and finishing 20th, his worst finish of the year. He has an opportunity to finish in the top 5 in points, which would be an impressive fete for a rookie running for a one-car team, his championship homes have gone out the window.  

Dario Franchitti (104 behind Hunter-Reay)

Did anyone see this coming? Last year’s champion (and the year before and the year before that and the year before the year he skipped to try his hand at NASCAR) is out of this year’s hunt. Despite his win at Indianapolis in May, Franchitti has had a dismal season. After four years (not counting the season he was not there) of winning races and finishing well, the magic has not been there this year for the four-time champion. Nobody knows exactly what’s wrong. Has he struggled with the new car? Is his career on the downturn? Or is he just having one of those years where nothing goes right for him? I sure don’t know why.

Everyone Else (125 or more points behind Hunter-Reay)

I feel for all of the Briscoe fans, Rahal fans, Servia fans, and the fans of everyone else outside of the top 8 in points. But please don’t let that stop you from cheering on your driver, whomever they may be. Like I said before, some of them have the chance to pull off a win before the season is over.

Has My Championship Prediction Changed?

I said in my “halfway through the season” post that I predicted that Will Power would win this championship. That was before Ryan Hunter-Reay’s winning streak and Helio Castroneves’ consistency overtook him in the points standings. That was when I really took a look at and compared the trio’s statistics. All three of them have reasons to think they could win this title but there are also strikes against them. I do think history will factor into this. I’ll delve into why I think this next month before Fontana. But right now, I think experience will play into this championship fight. Helio Castroneves will finally be an INDYCAR champion.